Tuesday 19 January 2010

RS Platou: Chemical Outlook - POSITIVE

Shipping Quarterly, January 2010

Please find enclosed the latest edition of our Shipping Quarterly.

The publication covers an equity market and shipping markets outlook in addition to covering 26 international shipping companies. Full coverage of Teekay Corporation has been added since our previous report.

For more details, please see the attached file (our apologies for the file size).

Our recommendations:

Executive summary:
Chemical tankers
Outlook: - Positive
Market expected to turn demand driven with improving earnings and asset values. Share prices trading at below mid-cycle EBITDA multiples and mostly with a discount to net asset value and book values, hence good risk/reward.

Tankers
Outlook: - Mixed
We have forecasted a stronger 2010 for some time as single hull phase out are expected to reduce fleet growth and a rebound in OPEC output is expected to improve tanker demand. However, stock picking will be increasingly important as some names already reflect our positive view on 2010 after recent rally.

Car Carriers
Outlook: - Positive
Pent-up demand and restocking expected to give car carriers a demand boost. Supply side still seeing a substantial orderbook but owners are showing good scrapping and cancellation discipline. Expected to turn demand driven again from low levels. Wilh.Wilhelmsen trading at attractive valuation.

LNG
Outlook: - Steadily improving
Demand to outpace supply over the next three years as newbuilding deliveries decline and significant volumes from new LNG capacity are added. For the Golar companies, new FSRU deals to Golar Energy may trigger while Golar LNG is an attractive yield case.

Drybulk
Outlook: - Mixed
Fleet utilization and average earnings expected to see few changes from 2009. However, we believe the market is starting out in the high end of the volatility range and that rates will gradually decline through the year. Valuation is showing huge differences, hence pair trading is still recommended.

Container
Outlook: - Still challenging
Past the worst, though owners will have to struggle at least through 2010 with earnings around operational costs before the tonnage overhang is absorbed. Distress risk especially among non-operators in this period. Demand expected to rebound first on the intra-Asia trades, hence favouring the smaller vessels. No coverage yet of container companies.

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